CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT OR WHO CONTROLS IT?

Fedorov V. M., Grebennikov P.B.

The climate is the most important characteristic of the natural environment in which we all live. This environment is changed under the influence of both natural factors and human activities. No doubt, the main factor in the climate formation and change was considered the energy coming from the Sun. "The Sun is the only heat source which is strong enough to have a significant impact on the temperatures of the earth`s surface and air" (A. I. Voeykov). Climate change during the year (changing seasons) are determined by the motion of the Earth around the Sun and the tilt of the Earth`s axis to the plane of this movement. The explanation for this phenomenon was given by Hipparchus (Greek astronomer, geographer and mathematician of the second century BC). It has been associated with a change in the slope of incidence of sunlight upon the motion of the Earth around the Sun (the climate means the tilt in Greek language). Until now, the causes of long-term climate variability have been the subject of scientific debate. In their study presented with a number of international scientific programs. For example, it is the World Climate Programme and World Climate Research Programme coordinated by ICSU (international Council of Scientific Unions), UNESCO and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). Let us try to understand this a little bit.

 The incoming solar energy (total for the year it is 5.49 • 1024 J/m²) is constantly changing. These changes are determined by two factors which have different physical origin. The first is changing Solar activity (sunspots, facular, etc.). The other reason determined by the celestial-mechanical processes (the change in distance between the Earth and the Sun, the tilt of the Earth's rotation axis, etc.). We calculated the amount of the solar energy arrived to Earth of and has obtained some new data for its time (including the celestial-mechanical processes) and spatial (latitude) distribution. But before we talk about this, it is necessary to say a little about the basic mechanism of heat transfer on the Earth.

The Equatorial region receives more incoming from the Sun energy and the polar regions less due to the fact that the shape of the Earth close to a sphere. As a result, on Earth naturally formed "heater" – Equatorial region and two "cooler" – the polar regions. The heat from the Equatorial region is transferred to polar regions mostly water and air masses. This heat transfer (it known as heat machine of the first kind) leads to the fact that the temperature in the Equatorial region slightly (due to the large area of the region) decreases and in the polar regions is noticeable increased (due to smaller areas of these regions). Now let us turn to what was not yet known to science.

It turned out that coming to the Earth solar energy tends to decrease. This already indicates that the trend in climate warming may be related to the greenhouse effect. However, with an overall reduction for the year, arrival to Earth of solar energy was increasing in the Equatorial region and decrease in the polar regions (this is due to the gradual secular decrease in the inclination of the Earth`s rotation axis). So the work of the heat machine of the first kind increases which leads ton increase of the inter-latitudinal heat transfer. The meridional heat transfer by air and water masses from the regions located in low latitudes to the region located in high latitudes increases. The consequence of this is the increase in air and surface ocean temperature in areas located above 45° latitude and a decrease in the areas below 45° latitude. The effect of the temperature increase in the polar regions is increasing evaporation which increases the content of H₂O in the atmosphere and enhance the natural greenhouse effect in these areas. The Hemispheres and Global temperature is enhanced by raising the temperature in areas located above 45° latitude. At the same time, it is important to note that the warming is is more expressed in the northern polar region. At the same time, it is important to note that the warming is more expressed in the Northern polar region. This is manifested in the fact that sea ice is actively melting under the influence of heat coming from below (from water) and from above (from the air). In the Southern hemisphere ocean occupies a large area. The ocean absorbed (accumulated) most of the incoming heat. In addition, the Southern polar region is ice-covered continent – Antarctica, which itself is a powerful "refrigerator".

The natural greenhouse effect (the atmosphere's ability to retain heat) occurs on all planets with atmosphere. The leading role of H₂O in enhancing the greenhouse effect on the Earth is supported by the fact that the water vapor content in the atmosphere by 1 – 2 orders of magnitude exceeds the content of carbon dioxide. On the satellite images of the Earth from space we can see that it is covered by clouds. It's water vapor and not CO₂. It is seen that almost 2/3 of the Earth is covered by oceans and seas and it is also water and not CO₂. Huge total water content on the Earth and the simultaneous presence in its three phase states (water, steam, ice) assumes a corresponding role of it in the climate formation and change. It manifests itself in the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean, and in the transfer of heat from the Equator toward the Poles.

That is a very general mechanism naturally explains climate change. Our studies of changes in global temperature and sea ice cover in the Northern hemisphere and the distribution of incoming solar energy confirm this mechanism of long-term climate change. It turns out that annual variations (which explained Hipparchus) and long-term climate change associated with common cause. It is the tilt of earth's axis and its changes. The new data confirms old ideas about solar energy as the main factor in the formation and change of earth's climate.

Now we turn to the mechanism of “man-made” climate change. In 1896, Swedish scientist S. Arrhenius suggested that the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere contributes to the increase in the average temperature on the Earth. This assumption which was developed over the last 30 – 40 years by many researchers in different countries has led humanity to the idea of anthropogenic factor in global climate change. In 2007, Vice-President of the USA, A. Gore and the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were the generalizations of observations of the change in global temperature and greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.). Result of generics was the discovering indicating that the main factor of climate change now are greenhouse gases, increased content of which in the atmosphere is man-made. However, the role of the main greenhouse gas (water vapor) somehow goes by the wayside. We know, that the CO₂ content in 1 m³ of the atmosphere is only about 395 parts per million (ppm) or 0.0395% of the volume. Water vapor content in 1 m³ of the air (average of 0.2 - 2.5%) is 1 - 2 (Arctic - 3) orders of magnitude greater. The observed increase in the CO₂ content from year to year is only the units of millionth parts of the volume. In addition, some scientists estimate that the anthropogenic component in the overall increase of CO₂ is generally less than 1%.The methane content is even less. It's just a billionth of this volume. The dependence of trends in global temperature from very minor quantities of CO₂ change seems strange and questionable. There is also evidence that an increase in CO₂ content is due to the temperature increase and not vice versa. However, this version of the climate change proposed by research groups supported by politicians and non-government organizations of many countries.

So, during the G7 summit (June 2015) German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated the need for each country to develop a program to reduce atmospheric CO₂ emissions (as the main factor of climate change). But about a hundred years ago, one of the founders of climatology in Germany W. Koeppen wrote: "Until now, despite numerous attempts, it has not been possible to specify a single meteorological event, the source of which is not the radiative energy of the sun”. However, A. Gore and the IPCC managed to find a new form of alternative energy sources and climate change.

In August 2015, US President Barack Obama in the speech to the graduates of the US Coast Guard Academy said that climate change is a direct threat to US national security. Also, it is fraught with instability and conflict situations worldwide. Later, the US president also made a proposal contained package of measures to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. He called them "the largest and most important step" in the fight against climate change.

Countries participating in the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) develop a new global agreement on climate issues. The purpose of the agreement is reduce warming on the Earth to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (now it`s about 0.9°C). In December 2015, this agreement was discussed at the climate forum in Paris by the heads and representatives of 150 countries. The economic result of this agreement could be the creation of a new global market for trading "air" – quotas. In this case, the real prediction of climate change is sacrificed to the economic interests. But over time, these interests can themselves become victim of do not predictable impacts of significant climate change. It is the climatic consequence of the new agreement.

Our calculated data confirm that the causes of the observed global climate change have natural origin. These causes are associated with the features of the orbital motion of the Earth. The main reason is the secular decrease in the tilt of earth`s rotation axis. It is impossible to fight with such causes. We can only to work in advance for early warning about the consequences of climate change and for successful adaptation. Misconceptions about the real causes of climate change may pose a threat to national security for all countries due to the lack of the possibility of developing reliable forecasts and assessment of impacts of climate change. In what environment will live our children and grandchildren? The answer to this question mainly depends on whether the present generation will be able to determine the real causes of climate change, to reliably predict and prepare for the consequences of these changes.

The natural environment is changed not only by natural factors but also as a result of human activity. According to our calculations, the increase in greenhouse gases does not affect the trend of increasing global temperature. But it affects the ecological status of the environment of individual areas. Therefore, the limitation of greenhouse gas emission is an important contribution to the optimization of the environment of industrial cities and separate territories. However, it is difficult to create a global market on the basis of regional ecology. If it form on the basis of ideas about global climate changes due to carbon dioxide emissions as a result of human activity. So, it is necessary for someone. But it is possible that CO₂ as the primary anthropogenic factor of climate change is used out of desperation. It is a forced measure. Since the attempts to relate these changes with solar activity were unsuccessful. And the results of the research project "Solar radiation and trends of Earth`s climate change" are presented on this website and published in scientific articles recently. In our opinion, the question of who or what drives climate change requires a new scientific assessment and socio-political interpretation.